People said so many insightful things about bitcoin in 2018…
And so many more stupid and clueless things.
Can 2019 top either extreme?
Oh, it can… and it will. How do I know?
I read these quotes all the time in articles… hear them on TV… see them in tweets. They’re all there in my head. And now I’m sharing the would-be, should-be quotes we’ll hear this year.
So let me paint you a picture. It’s mid-2019 and the stock markets are falling – no surprise there. They’re down 15% from the beginning of the year. Bitcoin is up 15% – also no surprise. It hit its lows at the end of last year.
By the way, I’m being very conservative on bitcoin’s rise.
So here’s what the believers, critics, skeptics, fence sitters, crypto-punks and Wall Streeters will say about crypto halfway through 2019 – and some “wise words” (depending on who you ask) they offered in the past.
🙂 2019 Michael Casey, senior advisor for blockchain research at MIT’s Digital Currency Initiative: “I understand it matches the speed of Venmo and has twice as many users as PayPal. It is the blockchain’s first massively adopted app and certainly not its last.”
2018 Michael Casey: “I… believe [this crypto technology] can only succeed with mass adoption. I don’t care how it gets there – whether by widespread retail usage or by the back-office use of public blockchain architectures.”
🙁 2019 Nouriel Roubini (aka Dr. Doom), economist: “The SEC acted in wanton haste in approving VanEck’s ETF application. It’s guaranteed to go down as one of the SEC’s worst decisions ever. Other applicants – offering ETFs aimed at the retail investor – now assume it’s only a matter of time before their applications are also approved. I can only hope that their assumptions prove false.”
2018 Nouriel Roubini: “The SEC would be reckless in ever approving a crypto ETF or even a bitcoin ETF. The price of all cryptocurrencies is massively manipulated.”
🙂 2019 Mike Novogratz, former hedge fund manager and Goldman Sachs partner, and founder of Galaxy Digital Holdings: “The SEC has struck a reasonably balanced view in its recent issuance of what constitutes a security in the context of crypto coin offerings.”
2018 Mike Novogratz: “The ICO market is pretty much dead right now… The SEC was behind the curve, so they slammed on the brakes. But the SEC doesn’t want to kill this innovation.”
🙂 2019 Barry Silbert, the founder of Digital Currency Group: “We believe that the rebound of crypto prices represents the beginning of a sustained leg up that could continue into the first half of the 2020s, given the steady increase of institutional money now flowing into the bitcoin space.”
2018 Barry Silbert: “Behind the scenes, nobody has slowed down.” The current discounted market is a “fantastic opportunity.”
🙁 2019 Andreas Utermann, CEO of Allianz Global Investors: “You should outlaw shorting the stock market until it goes back into the black. Too many investors have lost their savings due to the market’s significant slump. I’m surprised that regulators haven’t done anything to stop the bleeding.”
2018 Andreas Utermann: “You should outlaw [crypto assets],” because many have lost savings due to the significant slump in the crypto markets. “I am personally surprised that regulators haven’t stepped in harder.”
🙂 🙁 2019 Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway and billionaire investor: “Never mind understanding bitcoin – I invested at the end of last year. You should too.”
1997 Warren Buffett: “You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence.” (1996 shareholder letter published in 1997)
2018 Warren Buffett: Cryptocurrency is “probably rat poison squared.”
🙂 2019 Andy Gordon, co-founder of Early Investing: “Clarity can do wonders. Compared with last year this time, we know so much more. We have legal clarity. We know the infrastructure built for the large institutional investors works. Security has solidified. User experience improvements have made the beginning of mass adoption possible. The fog of uncertainty has finally lifted.”
2018 Andy Gordon: “’Show, don’t tell.’ It’s a reasonable request.”
Good investing,
Andy Gordon
Co-Founder, First Stage Investor