The ONLY Nonaddictive Opioid Under Development Has Doctors Buzzing…

And Now You Can Invest

By Andy Gordon, Co-Founder, First Stage Investor

Phoenix PharmaLabs (PPL) could be the most important company I’ve ever recommended. Yes, it has a very good chance of making early investors a great deal of money.

But that’s not all it can do.

Founders often talk about making a difference. When they say they’re saving their users time, money or both, it can be a big deal. Uber is a big deal. Airbnb is a big deal. So are dozens of other startups.

But this company is on a whole different level…

Searching for Answers

More than 100 people die of opioid overdoses every day in this country.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is searching for answers. It says, “Addiction to prescription opioids is a major public health problem that is getting worse and getting worse rapidly.” And a new government report estimates that it’s costing the U.S. more than $78 billion a year.

But it’s the cost in lives that makes this such a tragic problem.

PPL could help save tens of thousands of people from a debilitating, soul-destroying life of drug addiction. And our health system could save billions of dollars.

This tiny company could put a stop to the raging epidemic of opioid addiction. Imagine that.

PPL has discovered a nonaddictive and extremely effective pain-relieving drug that could replace current dangerously addictive opioids and put an end to the opioid crisis.

I don’t say this lightly. I’m painfully aware that we are losing the war against opioid addiction.

Every time my (adult) kids or my wife, Cecily, are prescribed an opioid like oxycontin, I tell them to be extremely careful. “One day you’re a patient, the next day you’re an addict,” I warn them. You can’t let that happen to you.

I’m lucky, though. I’ve never had to witness a loved one’s life turn into a living nightmare because of an opioid addiction. Nobody deserves that.

So when Bill Crossman, the president and CEO of PPL, told me his company is developing a drug that has gone through several preclinical trials and seems tailor-made for fighting the opioid epidemic, I immediately recognized the immense importance of his endeavors.

Current Status

PPL’s drug is in the preclinical phase. It’s the first step the FDA mandates all drugs take on their road to approval. Preclinical studies provide information on dosing and toxicity. Researchers then decide whether the drug should be tested on people.

Bill says the company will begin clinical research (involving human participants) in about 15 to 18 months. It typically takes six to eight years to complete.

It’s not an easy road. As companies wend their way through Phase 1 to Phases 3 and 4, there’s a big drop-off. But this is not your typical drug.

It has a better chance than many other drugs to emerge from clinical trials with proven efficacy and safety.

How It Works

The brain has three opioid receptors – mu, kappa and delta. Right now, all opioids bind to and then aggressively stimulate the mu receptors, producing a euphoric and addictive “high.”

Side effects include addiction, withdrawal, constipation and death from overdose.

PPL is developing a powerful pain reliever called PPL-103, which stimulates mu receptors only slightly, with higher stimulation of the kappa and delta regions of the brain.

The results in animal trials are almost too good to be true…

They show that PPL-103 does NOT produce euphoria (or dysphoria), lead to addiction or precipitate withdrawal. There is NO death by overdose (even at a 350X dose) and NO constipation (even at a 100X dose).

PPL believes it has found a safe alternative to the dangerous and addictive opioid drugs prescribed to patients. And the (admittedly early) preclinical results are confirming this.

PPL also thinks its PPL-103 can be a much better drug for addiction treatment than methadone, buprenorphine and Suboxone, since those drugs are also addictive opioids.

Reams of Data Point to a Successful Outcome

PPL has extensively studied PPL-103’s effects on animals. The results have been very positive.

That’s great. Normally, at this early stage, researchers have little idea if a drug that performs well for animals will do as well for humans. It’s pretty much a crapshoot.

But there’s a vast amount of opioid testing data on animals and humans that shows opioids have similar effects on both. That’s PPL’s edge.

Crossman said that, based on this historical data, he’s confident the drugs PPL is developing will be “safe, effective and beneficial for humans.”

In terms early investors can really appreciate… This investment is “derisked” significantly beyond what would be expected at such an early stage.

Big Pharma Is Paying Attention

This is a one-of-a-kind opportunity.

PPL is developing the first and (as far as I know) only nonaddictive opioid drug. The large pharmaceutical companies will be following PPL’s progress closely. Many have already expressed strong interest in a licensing deal once the company begins its human trials.

What can PPL expect? Upfront payments to license the production and sales of pain-relieving drugs start at $20 million and go up from there.

Just think… Pfizer paid Aldolor $30 million upfront for its drug while it was in Phase 1 clinical trials. Teva paid Xenon $41 million for a pain-treating drug in Phase 2. And Allergan paid Merck $250 million upfront for a drug in Phase 2 testing.

That’s only the initial payment. As milestones are achieved, payments run into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

PPL’s clinical trials are less than two years away. Phase 2 testing is 2 1/2 to three years away. Not so long.

Just remember that the company isn’t home free once it gets to the clinical testing stage. Hopefully, money going out is more than offset by money coming in. But it still needs to successfully complete its clinical trials.

And only when it IPOs will you be able to turn your paper gains into hard cash. A buyout could also happen when it completes clinical trials, if not earlier.

Exceptional Team Addressing a Huge Market

The executive team has drawn very little salary to date, keeping expenses down and allowing the company to operate on government grants – which are hard to get and even harder to make last.

Crossman has a wealth of business experience, from startups to blue chips. His partner and company founder and chairman is Dr. John Lawson, who worked at Stanford Research Institute for 20 years, where he discovered and developed new compounds in analgesics and other areas.

These two have found a way to run a highly professional operation on a tight budget… find grant money… attract highly qualified team members and advisors… and make use of talent and resources from China, Japan, Australia, Israel, Canada and other countries.

It’s quite impressive, and it gives me the utmost confidence that they will navigate future challenges with equal tenacity.

The market they’re addressing is huge – and growing by 5% a year.

It’s expected to reach nearly $35 billion by 2025.

How to Invest

Go to the Phoenix PharmaLabs investment page on Netcapital.com. If you don’t have an account on Netcapital, you’ll be prompted to create one. Then follow the steps and fill out the required information. This shouldn’t take more than a few minutes. Then click on the orange box that says “Invest.”

Now choose the payment method that works best for you to transfer the funds. Your money will be held by an escrow agent until the deal closes, when it will be transferred to PPL, and you will officially own a piece of this exciting, innovative pharmaceutical company.

Risks

PPL is an early-stage tech investment, and like all such investments, it’s risky. Do not invest money you can’t afford to lose.

Also, remember that these types of investments are not liquid, meaning you can’t buy or sell your stake easily. If and when an exit opportunity arises, you’ll be informed immediately. ■

EMERGING MARKETS

Time to Move Into Emerging Markets

By Adam Sharp, Co-Founder, First Stage Investor

I don’t own any U.S. index funds. I believe they’re set to underperform, especially the Russell 2000, which still trades at a very expensive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 41.

I’m generally bearish on the U.S. markets.

U.S. stocks remain expensive by historical standards. They pay lower dividends. Companies have more debt and buy back more stock than ever before. And they’re buying back that stock at inflated levels, often using more debt to do so. These market conditions are the result of a credit bubble created by the Federal Reserve maintaining ridiculously low rates for an entire decade.

The Fed creates bubbles by keeping rates artificially low and credit artificially loose (loans flow freely due to regular cash injections). The Fed’s most recent rate hike won’t change this.

And we don’t know what the Fed will do next. It may hike rates a bit more. But I expect there will be another round of quantitative easing (money printing) and even negative interest rates eventually.

Stocks go up when rates are low because the yields on bonds become tiny and people need to earn a return on their money. This creates a “wealth effect,” where people spend more because their portfolios seem more valuable. That’s the Fed’s go-to move for the economy – and I don’t see it changing that anytime soon.

(I realize this Federal Reserve stuff can be a snore, but bear with me. This is the most important thing to watch if you’re in the U.S.)

The Fed’s low rates have artificially pushed U.S. stocks higher, and it’s simply not sustainable in the long run. They may be able to reinflate the market a few more times, but in the end it will have a cost. That cost could come in the form of inflation, loss of confidence in the dollar, very high interest rates and/or negative interest rates.

To me, the Fed’s overall strategy likely leads to stagflation. Stagflation describes a period where inflation is higher, stocks lag due to a slower economy, and unemployment and underemployment become problematic. That’s the ultimate whammy. As I see it, debt won’t be able to stimulate growth as it used to. And we’ll need more debt to pay off the old debt and fund huge, ongoing deficits.

Those of us in the U.S. need hedges against negative events like this. Almost everything in our financial life has exposure to the dollar and U.S. Treasurys. I don’t like depending on the Fed to determine the outcome of U.S. markets. I inherently don’t trust this institution. Neither should you.

Some U.S. stocks will be fine. But many won’t make it. Companies are saddled with too much debt. I’m holding a few long-term positions (more than a decade) in large tech companies (Square, Google, etc.) and some cannabis stocks. But those are among the only U.S. stocks I plan to hold for the next few years at least.

In this market, I want cheap stocks with serious upside to serve as hedges against domestic trouble. For me, that means cheap emerging markets, which are a great long-term bet.

Seeking Shelter Overseas

In the long run, I believe cryptocurrencies will benefit from this building debt crisis. But fiat troubles are likely a few years away. And crypto should make up only a small part of an overall portfolio (1% to 3%).

I’m always looking for U.S. startup investments. But again, that’s a long-term play with huge upside and some risk. It too should make up a small part of your portfolio (5% to 10%).

Emerging market economies are where I focus most of my attention to stocks. There’s real value there. To be clear, I mean emerging markets, not “developed” international markets. Other advanced economies like Europe and Japan have the same problems as the U.S. – unsustainable debt and broken political systems. So I’m avoiding them too.

Emerging market stocks are twice as cheap, if not more. And while they’ve underperformed U.S. markets over the last 10 years by a wide margin, they’re growing quickly.

And importantly, most of these countries don’t have anywhere near the level of credit trouble brewing. They have far less debt, and that means they are less fragile.

Buying emerging market stocks gives you exposure to foreign economies and currencies. If the dollar ever falters (and you’re in the U.S.), owning foreign stocks will help cushion the impact. I’m not saying that’s going to happen soon, but it is nice to find cheap investment hedges with upside. And that’s exactly how I see emerging market stocks today.

If you want to get very broad exposure to emerging markets, I like the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: VWO). The average P/E ratio is 12.85, far cheaper than U.S. stocks. The expense ratio is a bargain at 0.14%. It gives you exposure to leading companies in China, Brazil, South Africa and more. You get a nice basket of foreign stock diversification at a good price.

If you’re a bargain hunter with risk tolerance, there’s Russia. It’s arguably the cheapest market in the world today, trading at around a 6.7 P/E ratio. Of course, there are political, currency and oil price risks with this investment. But Russia is one of the few countries in the world with barely any debt or deficit, and I think that will benefit its markets in coming years. Everyone hates this market, which brings out the contrarian in me. There are a number of exchange-traded funds and other funds you can find to get exposure to Russian markets.

Many of the large companies in Russia are state controlled and poorly run, but cheap is cheap. In this market, every investment comes with more than a few asterisks.

The primary risk emerging markets face is the prospect of a rising dollar. If the greenback rises sharply against countries where you own stocks, your position will lose value. But the reverse is also true. If the dollar loses value against those countries’ currencies, emerging stocks will rise in value in dollar terms.

I try to look at markets from a cold analytical perspective. I don’t want the U.S. economy to underperform. But that seems likely until the underlying problems (debt, loose monetary policy and waste) are fixed.

We’ll get there eventually. But I think the old system has to fail first. That will take a while.

I can’t wait for the day when I’m excited to buy U.S. small caps again. But until then, I’m looking elsewhere for growth and portfolio protection. ■

FINDING CANNABIS BRANDS

It’s All About Brands in Cannabis

By Adam Sharp, Co-Founder, First Stage Investor

With marijuana prices dropping in most areas, it appears as though we’re headed toward the “commoditization” of cannabis.

Fortunately, consumer demand for quality cannabis is high. But with a huge amount of new supply coming into the market in Canada and the U.S., the long-term trend for price is almost certainly down.

That’s OK, though. Lower prices are to be expected.

Cannabis is still a huge growth market, and there’s a chance here to build lasting brands as this new market grows and matures. It’s a rare opportunity.

As a result of expected price declines, cannabis companies are looking to marijuana-infused edibles (you can read why Senior Managing Editor Vin Narayanan thinks edibles will be one of the biggest trends in cannabis later in this issue), vaporizers, concentrates, supplements, medicines and beverages for growth opportunities and profits. These branded products can have substantially higher profit margins than plain dried marijuana flower. And the best brands will attract loyal users, as they do in the alcohol and tobacco markets.

A few of the companies being built today will be global powerhouses in 10 years. I think this industry will be bigger than tobacco and alcohol. The market potential for recreational marijuana is massive. And the medical market has the potential to be just as big – if not bigger.

Canopy Growth Well Set Up

Our First Stage Investor portfolio company Canopy Growth Corporation is well-positioned in branded cannabis products. The company owns leading lines of cannabis goods, such as Tweed, which is arguably the most recognizable brand in Canada today. Canopy’s international medical line, Spectrum Cannabis, has incredible growth potential.

Canopy also has a partnership with leading cannabis breeding firm DNA Genetics to sell products based on its unique and award-winning cannabis strains. You can read more about Canopy’s brands on the company’s website.

These solid brands and Canopy’s effective operation are some of the reasons the company attracted a $4 billion investment from leading alcoholic beverage firm Constellation Brands.

With this war chest of cash, great brands and a significant partnership with one of the largest distributors in the world, Canopy is set to grab a huge chunk of both the Canadian and international markets.

But I know many of you are seeking smaller pot stock opportunities (who isn’t?). Here are a few tips on finding great brands to invest in.

Evaluating Cannabis Brands

Before you consider buying a pot stock, take a good look at the branded products on its website. Then search social media, like Twitter or Facebook, to find product reviews and comments. (If the social media posts about the product seem too good to be true, take them with a grain of salt.) Search Google News to see what you can find about the company and its brands.

Find a few stocks that seem to have good brands, and watch their financial results. There’s no need to rush out and buy immediately in this market. Watch the companies for a bit. See how their revenues trend. If they sell reliable products that customers love, ultimately that will show up in their financial results.

If possible, network with people in the industry. I learned a ton about publicly traded U.S. pot stocks by talking with companies at the cannabis conference we attended late last year. The folks I spoke with were surprisingly open about which companies they had the most respect for, and they sometimes even told me which stocks they owned.

One name that came up repeatedly in those conversations with insiders was MedMen, a leading U.S. cannabis company with 19 facilities that handle everything from cultivation (growth) to manufacturing and retail sales. MedMen has more than a thousand employees and operates in five states (no cannabis passes over borders, of course).

The fact that MedMen is respected by its competitors is encouraging. But I’m still watching and waiting on this one. MedMen currently trades at a $1.3 billion valuation, and that’s not exactly cheap for such a young business. But while it’s burning too much cash for my liking, its growth is impressive. And according to people in the industry, MedMen runs a solid operation. It’s on my watch list.

Because MedMen handles marijuana directly, it trades on the OTC (over-the-counter) markets (it can’t trade on big exchanges like the NYSE because cannabis is still illegal at the federal level). MedMen’s ticker is MMNFF if you want to take a look, but I do recommend watching and waiting on this one. We may get a chance to buy it significantly cheaper, considering recent market volatility.

We’re on the lookout for other promising marijuana companies to add to the portfolio and will let you know when we find them.

If you know of any great pot investments, share them with us at mailbag@earlyinvesting.com and tell us why you like them. ■

2019 CANNABIS TRENDS

The Pot Industry Is Here to Stay

Five Cannabis Trends to Watch in 2019

By Vin Narayanan, Senior Managing Editor, First Stage Investor

There’s an old saying in politics: You can’t un-ring a bell. Once you’ve taken an action, it’s almost impossible to reverse it. In the marijuana industry, the legalization bell has been ringing for years. And in the commercial sector, the marijuana bell rang louder than ever in 2018. Investors are all in on pot. The marijuana industry is here to stay.

Tilray, Canopy Growth Corporation and Aurora Cannabis all experienced explosive growth this past year. At one point in September, 10 pot stocks had a market cap of at least $1 billion each.

Canada legalized recreational marijuana in 2018. And Utah, a state known for its conservative politics, legalized medicinal marijuana. In all, 32 states and Washington, D.C., have legalized some form of cannabis. Ten states and Washington, D.C., have legalized recreational marijuana.

So what does 2019 hold for the cannabis industry? Here are five trends to watch.

1. More States Legalizing Cannabis

In December, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced legalizing recreational marijuana was a 2019 legislative priority. Cuomo didn’t always support legalizing marijuana. He used to believe pot was a “gateway drug” to other narcotics. “Better late than never” is the charitable way to describe his flip-flop.

If Cuomo delivers on his promise, two of the four most populous states in the country – California (39.5 million people) and New York (19.8 million people) – will allow the recreational use of pot.

New Jersey is also planning to legalize recreational marijuana next year. Gov. Phil Murphy ran on the issue. Committees in both the New Jersey Senate and Assembly have approved legislation. There are still stumbling blocks, though. The tax rate remains a contentious point (more on that later). How to expunge the records of people previously convicted of minor marijuana crimes is another. But those are problems that can be solved. Legislators are not that far away from a deal.

In Nebraska, Sens. Adam Morfeld and Anna Wishart are gathering petitions for a medical marijuana ballot initiative in 2020. Three of that state’s neighbors – Colorado, Iowa and Missouri – have thriving marijuana industries. And with conservative states like Utah on board, there’s no reason Nebraska shouldn’t legalize.

Illinois (more on that later) and New Mexico are both considering legalizing marijuana. And several states are studying the issue. Legalizing marijuana is a mainstream issue now. 2019 will be the year politicians start to catch up to that fact.

2. States Snatching Up Taxes

States are starting to look at a legalized marijuana industry as a cash cow. For politicians uncomfortable with legalizing pot, the tax revenue provides them an excuse they can live with. That’s especially true in states facing massive budget deficits, like Illinois.

Illinois is in serious financial trouble thanks to chronically underfunded public pensions. Depending on whom you ask, the state’s budget deficit is either $8 billion or $14.6 billion. Illinois’ financial woes were a constant issue in the 2018 governor’s race. J.B. Pritzker, the state’s new governor (inauguration day is January 14), ran on legalizing marijuana. And part of the reason he wants to legalize pot is to create a new source of tax revenue.

Pritzker did cite criminal justice reform and the opioid crisis as other reasons to legalize marijuana. But the tax revenue is the key. Illinois needs the money badly.

That same fight is playing out in New Jersey right now. The legislature has set the tax rate at 12%. Murphy wants a 25% tax. Meanwhile, the people who care primarily about criminal justice reform are upset that cannabis legislation has turned into a fight over money. New Jersey and Illinois will eventually legalize marijuana. But this fight is going to play out in more states. States need new sources of revenue. The money grab is just beginning.

3. Big Pharma Forming Partnerships

In 2018, two major cannabis investments grabbed all the attention. Constellation Brands, which makes Corona and Modelo beers, invested $4 billion in Canopy Growth. And Altria, the parent company of Philip Morris, invested $1.8 billion in Cronos. Both investments are buzzworthy. But another 2018 cannabis investment will ultimately prove to be more important.

In late December, Tilray inked a partnership with pharmaceutical giant Novartis. Tilray is a Canadian cannabis company that trades on the Nasdaq. Its stock has seen 200% gains since it went public earlier this year.

Tilray’s Novartis deal is impressive. Tilray will be able to use Novartis subsidiary Sandoz to introduce medical marijuana products throughout the world. And Tilray is the only supplier Novartis can use. In return, Tilray won’t work with other pharmaceutical companies. The agreement covers products that can’t be smoked.

As Adam noted earlier, the medical marijuana market has the potential to be at least as big as the recreational market. Big Pharma isn’t just going to cede this market space to marijuana companies. That means more partnerships like the one between Tilray and Novartis are on the way.

4. Regulatory Enforcement Increasing

When all is said and done, the legal marijuana business will be one of the world’s most heavily regulated industries. Every plant will be monitored from the growing process to the consumer. Every bit of inventory will be tracked and accounted for. Dispensaries will have to follow strict labeling and packaging regulations. Even the quality of noncannabis ingredients used in products will be strictly regulated. Some of these regulations are critical for safety. Some are government overreach. Regardless of what you think of them, they need to be followed, as regulators will be watching.

We’re already seeing evidence of this in Massachusetts. Two dispensaries owned by the same company have been temporarily shut down because regulators found traces of pesticides in its cannabis. A third dispensary faced regulatory action, but stayed open, for selling unauthorized CBD products.

This is just the beginning. Governments believe they are doing the marijuana industry a favor by letting them operate in the open. Now the industry has to follow all the rules. And regulators will be actively enforcing them.

5. Edibles Going Mainstream

There is so much more to marijuana edibles than brownies. Cannabis-infused chocolates, peanut butter, honey and olive oil are all widely sold. And that’s just a tiny slice of the edibles market.

Americans and Canadians spent more than $1 billion on marijuana edibles in 2017, according to a report by Arcview Market Research and BDS Analytics. That number is expected to rise to $4.1 billion by 2022.

Marijuana cookbooks, like Edibles: Small Bites for the Modern Cannabis Kitchen, are now appearing in bookstores. Marijuana is hot. But so is foodie culture. People love to cook – and experiment with cooking. The availability of cannabis-infused ingredients and recipes will bring cannabis into the home. It’s inevitable.

So is the restaurant expansion into cannabis-infused foods. Restaurants already serve alcohol. Gourmet cannabis edibles is just the next logical step. My guess is we’ll see this in Las Vegas or San Francisco first. Then it will spread to other cities.

Food is a natural way for marijuana to move into the mainstream. And I believe 2019 is where we’ll see that process begin in earnest. ■

FEARLESS PREDICTIONS

Five Fearless Predictions for 2019

By Andy Gordon, Co-Founder, First Stage Investor

In the last First Stage Investor issue, I graded my 2018 predictions. I did fairly well. Now it’s time for my 2019 predictions.

1. Crowdfunding Will Soar to New Heights

Most of the portals we source our deals from raised more money to expand in 2018. A couple are raising now. They’ll be offering more deals in 2019. And they’ve become much better at extending their reach into different investor communities to increase interest and find startups. Portals are also beginning to experiment with listing their deals on secondary markets, turning previously illiquid shares into liquid ones.

X factor: The public stock markets. If they’re bearish, investors could be looking at startups to boost long-term returns.

2. The Next Hot Technology Will Be Hearables

When I go to the gym, I head to the elliptical and put on my headphones to make the next 30 minutes slightly less miserable. I’m not alone. Nearly 75% of frequent exercisers wear an audio headset while working out, according to a recent Jacobs Jenner & Kent research survey.

Because the ear doesn’t move during exercise, its data on heart rate, respiration, blood pressure and other functions are more accurate than data from other wearables and just as accurate as those from chest straps. Look for a growing number of sports audio headsets outfitted with biometric sensors.

X factor: The wrist. I ditched my last smartwatch because it lost contact with my heart rate about half the time. Apple says it has conquered this problem. I could also see Apple developing a hearable that complements its smartwatch.

3. Bitcoin Will Reach $25,000

The fear is so thick right now, I can smell the stench. It’s the flip side of last year, when investors tried to snag crypto’s last leg up. We’re now stuck in a reverse FOMO – flee or move on.

But here’s the thing… Nothing about the fundamental value proposition of bitcoin has changed. I still believe it’s a revolutionary technology that will transform how we live and conduct business. I still see infrastructure and tooling progress being made. But it’s still very early… just as it was in 2017, when investors went bonkers and drove prices far beyond what they should have been. The $700 billion question (that’s how much cryptocurrency has lost this year) is this: What’s going to trigger bitcoin’s next upswing?

The answer: Institutional money. It’ll be dipping into crypto for the first time this year. This is huge. The institutions know buying low is a nearly foolproof way to make serious profits. The smart money will be showing the way out of this overblown bearish market.

X factor: The government, who else? Whom the Securities and Exchange Commission targets… how it enforces… everything it says and does… can settle down the ICO and crypto investing space. But it can also prolong and compound the uncertainty.

4. Several Supersized IPOs Will Underperform

It’s not just that these companies could be going public in a faltering market. It’s that they’re priced extremely high for outfits that have never made a profit. They’ve “earned” their high prices by showing several years of rapid growth. Growth trumps profits in the pre-IPO startups world. But triple-digit – or near triple-digit – growth is hard to sustain. Of course, not all companies with 2019 IPOs will be outrageously expensive. The ones that aren’t will perform the best.

X factor: The economy. I expect it to slow in 2019, making rapid growth (and generating profits) even harder.

5. Big Data Will Begin to Take Off

Two trends are converging: data on everything and algorithms on everything. From buying habits to investment trends, every data point you can imagine will eventually be exposed to artificial intelligence for analysis and predictions. Eventually, we should be able to predict the next natural disaster, the next market upturns and downturns, and the next inflationary cycle. The technology isn’t quite there yet, but it’s improving rapidly.

X factor: Ethics. Too much knowledge has its dangers. Do you really want to know what diseases you’ll have or at what age you’ll die? There will be debates over free will, freedom of choice, and the use and misuse of data to affect outcomes.

This means I could be doing these predictions for a few more years before Big Data takes over one of my favorite tasks. The robot future isn’t here yet. But it’s coming. ■

portfolio update